When comparing the present BTC price correction (as of November 2025) with the pre-bear-market adjustment of late 2021, notable structural differences emerge that influence the market's resilience and potential trajectory.
Bitcoin prices show resilience amid shifting structural dynamics, with on-chain and liquidity conditions suggesting a tighter supply environment compared to 2021.
Structural context
The 2021 bear-market precursors were characterized by elevated selling pressure and higher exchange balances that could feed more downside. In contrast, current conditions indicate reduced exchange balances and a broader ecosystem that has adapted to macro shocks, potentially limiting rapid downside moves. This distinction is central to CryptoQuant’s assessment of resilience in the present cycle.
Key structural differences
- On-chain liquidity: Lower exchange balances imply less immediate selling pressure, potentially capping swift price declines.
- Market composition: A broader base of holders and improved risk management practices may dampen panic-driven selloffs.
- Valuation signals: Metrics such as market value to realized value (MVRV) and other cycle-sensitive indicators show different baselines than in 2021, affecting downside risk assessments.
Analysts emphasize that structural changes, rather than mere price movements, are shaping the current correction’s depth and duration.
Implications for traders
Compared with 2021, the current correction may exhibit greater resilience due to tighter supply on exchanges and a more mature market structure, even as volatility persists. Investors should monitor on-chain metrics and liquidity shifts to gauge the likelihood of sustained downside or a swift rebound.
Caveats
- Macro economic factors and policy developments continue to influence risk appetite and liquidity conditions across markets.
- Bitcoin-specific indicators can diverge from broader crypto indices, requiring a multi-metric approach to assess risk/reward.
Авторское резюме: Текущая коррекция Bitcoin демонстрирует структурную устойчивость благодаря снижению баланса на биржах и адаптации рынка, что может ограничить глубину падения по сравнению с 2021 годом.