New Climate Pledges Slightly Lower Global Warming Projections
An assessment by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) of new climate pledges under the Paris Agreement reveals that the predicted global temperature increase this century has decreased only marginally. The world still faces a significant rise in climate risks and damages.
Findings from UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025
Released on 4 November in Nairobi, Kenya, the report outlines:
- Projected global warming based on complete implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is now 2.3-2.5°C, compared to 2.6-2.8°C in last year’s report.
- Current policies alone would result in up to 2.8°C warming, down from 3.1°C previously.
- Part of this improvement (0.1°C) comes from methodological updates; however, the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will negate another 0.1°C, meaning the new NDCs barely affect the overall outlook.
Status of Paris Agreement Goals
Countries remain far from meeting the targets:
- Limiting warming to well below 2°C
- Making efforts to stay below 1.5°C
The report warns that the average global temperature rise will exceed 1.5°C temporarily, creating challenges for reversal.
"Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5°C will be difficult to reverse – requiring faster and bigger additional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimize overshoot, reduce damages to lives and economies, and avoid over-reliance on uncertain carbon dioxide removal methods."
Such overshoot demands urgent and accelerated climate action to limit long-term damage and dependence on unproven technologies for carbon removal.
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