In the base case scenario, the authors expect XRP XRP to benefit from the so‑called “Uptober” seasonality effect, with the price starting to trend upward into the end of the year. According to the text, under this scenario XRP could see a rally of roughly 30–40% during the fourth quarter, assuming supportive broader market conditions and no major negative regulatory shocks.
“In our base case scenario, with the ‘Uptober’ effect, price is expected to start trending up and could rally 30–40% in Q4.”
The forecast describes a moderate bullish outlook driven by historical Q4 strength, where XRP is not expected to explode in price but may deliver a solid double‑digit percentage gain if market sentiment remains positive. This view is framed as a baseline rather than an aggressive or highly speculative target, reflecting the authors’ attempt to balance optimism with prevailing market risk.
Author’s one‑sentence summary: The article outlines a cautious bullish base case in which seasonality and a supportive market backdrop could push XRP about 30–40% higher in Q4 without promising any extreme price spikes.